Democratic transition

For the first time in six decades, we are witnessing a proper democratic transition take place in Pakistan. With a 60 percent voter turnout, Pakistan has elected a new government. The previous dispensation, despite being a weak coalition government, completed its tenure. General elections were held under a neutral caretaker setup and an independent Election Commission. By and large, these elections were free and fair except in a few constituencies where re-polling took place, votes were recounted and/or cases of rigging are being investigated. Most analysts had predicted a hung parliament but the electorate has given a clear mandate to the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which is all set to form governments in both Punjab and Islamabad.

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) is now mostly confined to Sindh and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Imran Khan’s promised ‘tsunami’ failed to deliver much, which surprised many analysts but not Iftikhar Ahmad, a journalist who has been covering elections in Pakistan since 1990 for Jang Group as head of its election cell. He was one of the few who made near-accurate predictions just 2 days before the elections:

“PML-N will win 120 seats or more, PPP will get 30-40 and PTI will get 25-30 seats.” For the liberals, these elections proved to be disappointing as the PML-N and the PTI, two rightwing parties, took centre stage. With the PML-N’s 125 seats in the National Assembly and independent candidates joining the fray, Mian Nawaz Sharif will soon become the prime minister for the third time. Many in Pakistan, including some of his detractors, consider Nawaz Sharif a statesman-like figure. He proved his democratic credentials by supporting the previous democratic dispensation, which earned him the title of ‘soft opposition’ from his critics. Whatever Sharif’s reasons — whether to save his party’s government in Punjab or having a shot at becoming the prime minister again — credit must be given where it is due.

Now that he will be in charge of running the affairs of the state, Sharif will have a huge task at hand: from reviving Pakistan’s economy to resolving the energy crisis, from maintaining peaceful relations with its neighbours to dealing with the Taliban and other jihadist groups, from addressing the issue of civil-military imbalance to completing his five-year tenure, there is no dearth of problems. Nawaz Sharif has called for peace talks with the Pakistani Taliban but we have seen how such ‘talks’ have fared in the past.

On the foreign policy front, Nawaz has made some right noises. Nobody doubts Sharif’s commitment to peace with India but in the absence of a confident interlocutor in New Delhi, it will be difficult for him to move forward till a new government comes to power next year. Sharif realises the importance and benefits of a strong economy. He is said to be impressed with the Turkish Model where an Islamist party has been in power for a long time and has successfully managed to challenge the authority of Turkey’s powerful military by delivering on the economic front. If Sharif is able to deliver on the economic front, he will be in a position to challenge the army’s hold on foreign and national security policies. A rightwing party in power may not be an ideal solution to Pakistan’s woes but a strong democratic government was certainly needed to usher in a new era of democracy.

(Originally published in Mid-Day)

Return of the Lion King

Nawaz Sharif wins Pakistan but can he win the many wars within, ranging from economic to Islamic?

It's 11.30 p.m. on election day, May 11, at PML-N's imposing headquarters in Model Town, Lahore. As hundreds of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) supporters gather around to greet their leadership, "Burrhon, kamzoron ka sahara, puri qaum ka ek hee nara... Sher hamara, sher hamara (Champion of the old and weak, the entire nation's slogan: Our lion, our lion)" starts echoing in the background. A beaming Nawaz Sharif comes out on the balcony, as if to greet his loyal subjects. As daughter Maryam and brother Shahbaz nod approvingly, the prime minister-designate of Pakistan sounds suitably humble. "If anyone has abused me, abused Shahbaz Sharif, abused our party... we forgive them." With its victory, PML-N has silenced the moaners, groaners and doomsayers by sweeping Punjab and even emerging among the top three successful parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan in Pakistan's first-past-the-post system. According to the Election Commission of Pakistan's website, PML-N currently holds 124 National Assembly seats out of the 272 meant for direct election (60 are reserved for women and 10 for religious minorities).

With most independent candidates flocking to PML-N, its tally is expected to increase after official results come in. Nawaz seems to be the best choice for Pakistan right now because he has spent time understanding issues related to infrastructure, economy and governance with his team in the past five years. "There appears to be a consensus in political circles that Nawaz has outgrown his dictatorial roots and matured into a democratic, statesman-like figure," says political analyst Umair Javed. "One hopes that Nawaz and his party can resolve Pakistan's plethora of economic problems and, importantly, build on some of the good work done by the previous government on issues of federalism, cultural expression, women's rights and media freedom."

Hunter becomes hunted

Much-fancied Imran gets a rude shock

As results streamed in on May 11, Lahore's roads were full of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) supporters chanting slogans, but by 10 p.m., voting trends in Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa became clear. PML-N had swept the polls in Punjab. Caravan after caravan of jubilant PML-N supporters filled the streets of Lahore. "Dekho dekho kaun aaya, sher aaya sher aaya (Look who's here, the lion is here)" reverberated across every nook and cranny of Punjab.

Taking a dig at Imran Khan's "Sher ka shikaari (Lion hunter)" slogan, young PML-N supporters played the Bollywood song 'Jawani Jaaneman', with the lyrics "Shikari khud yahaan shikaar ho gaya, yeh kya sitam hua, yeh kya zulam hua, yeh kya ghazab hua, yeh kaise kab huva... Na jaanoon mai, na jaane woh... Aaha (The hunter himself has been hunted. Why this atrocity, why this oppression, why this surprising turn of events, how and when did this happen? I don't know, nor does he... )!" PTI supporters were left baffled by the turn of events.

All hopes of a phainta (beating) to electoral opponents promised by Khan's bat vanished. Nawaz's biggest challenge is the country's economic revival. After the election results, Standard and Poor's (S&P) Ratings Services has shown relative confidence in Pakistan's economic situation by declaring that the country is set for the longer-term stability of a 'B-' sovereign credit rating. Pakistan's stocks skyrocketed to new highs. Nawaz has not just been business-friendly but has also worked with multinational donor agencies. He has hinted he will get the International Monetary Fund on board to address the fiscal crunch because Pakistan's balance of payments is already under stress. The question is whether he will take tough and unpopular decisions to raise the tax-GDP ratio by adopting the reformed general sales tax proposed by the previous regime.

On the energy front, the biggest challenge will be the 870 billion Pakistani rupees of circular debt and the huge shortfall in utilising the installed capacity. In this backdrop, Nawaz's younger brother Shahbaz Sharif, famous for his management skills, was tipped to be the minister for water and power but the plan has been altered. Shahbaz will most likely become chief minister of Punjab for another term. Power outages will indeed remain a headache for the next government but Nawaz hopes to get a deferred oil pay-ment facility from the Saudis. It remains to be seen whether he will continue with the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project opposed by the US and Saudi Arabia.

The Terror Threat

Peace overtures won't woo the Taliban

Pakistan's economic stability is directly linked to the law and order situation. With the threat of terrorism looming large, investors are wary of the country. While Nawaz has firmly stated that Pakistani territory will not be used against any country, it all depends on his ability to rein in certain non-state actors. While he rejects the idea of backing any proxy war in Afghanistan in pursuit of strategic depth, he seems serious about offering an olive branch to Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. Experience shows that no peace agreement with the Taliban has worked, so Nawaz will have to deal with terrorism firmly at one point or another.

Newsweek Pakistan's Khaled Ahmed says Nawaz does not expect the Taliban to deliver what he really wants-lots of money to strengthen the economy-so he will adjust realistically to the Americans. "The Americans have actually abandoned Pakistan. Nawaz will make efforts to reconnect with them," says Ahmed. At a briefing for foreign media held at his palatial family estate in Raiwind, near Lahore, Nawaz mostly focused on relations with India, the US and an Afghan withdrawal. His relationship with the US will determine the course of history. Ahmed Rashid, best-selling foreign policy author of several books, feels Nawaz will be extremely practical despite the anti-American rhetoric most parties used during the election campaign because it was a popular line to take. "He will facilitate the American withdrawal from Afghanistan and down the road, if he gets a good working relationship with the army, he can even promote a dialogue between the Americans and the Taliban," says Rashid. "The Americans are not going to stop using drones and Pakistan cannot make them stop at will. What Pakistan can do is to have a more engaging discussion about drones, so they share responsibility and intelligence, something that existed at the start of the Musharraf regime. Nawaz would want to work well with the Americans because his main thrust will be on economic revival, for which he will need American help.

India on the Mind

The national consensus favours peace

Policy analyst Mosharraf Zaidi warns Pakistan of getting over-involved in Afghanistan. "The real challenge for Pakistan would be that it doesn't get stuck with the failings of the Afghan process so that the instability in Afghanistan doesn't affect Pakistan," he says. Zaidi thinks Nawaz's policy towards India is brilliant. "A lot of traditional foreign policy analysts and watchers have questioned his wisdom of coming on the front foot but when you know the game is moving towards a draw, you have to shake things up a bit. Pakistan has been doing that consistently during the last two years," says Zaidi. "In fact, Nawaz's desire to have peaceful relations with India is in itself an expression of a national consensus.

Every major political party in Pakistan has a clear view of what the future holds and what the future of South Asia should look like: Trade and free travel in order to expand the opportunities the region affords us. The way forward is not to get stuck on the things that we do not agree on," he says.

Underpinning all these issues is the civilmilitary relationship. According to some analysts, Nawaz is impressed by the Turkish model and wants to emulate it. To challenge the authority of the mighty military establishment, he first needs to deliver on the economic front. In six months, it will be known where his government is heading.

If he cannot successfully deal with all these issues, his government may not last five years. The military has directly kept out of politics in the past five years while keeping its hold on the security policy. Nawaz would like to assert his authority and has already said there would be no more Kargils, no more Mumbais. The army chief in his recent Martyrs' Day address stated the army's official position on terrorism, which provides the basis for an understanding between the army and the next prime minister.

Wresting control of foreign policy from the military may be his desire but many analysts believe Nawaz has learnt from his mistakes and may not take on the military directly. "If the military feels threatened or if he undercuts it by crossing some red lines, the military will not like it. The way forward is for both the civilian and military camps to work together," says Moeed Yusuf, political analyst and senior Pakistan expert at the US Institute of Peace. "The military establishment understands the standoff with India is untenable."

The Punjab Problem

Sectarianism needs to be stamped out

Yusuf feels Nawaz understands that terrorism is a major threat. "PML-N probably feels that if the establishment is not going to take any concrete action against the militants in Punjab, they'd rather stay away from it as it is a hornet's nest which, if they touch it, will come back to bite them. Thus, they've taken a backseat on this issue." It may be recalled that the Sharifs had come down heavily on extremist groups in the 1990s but had to back down after the establishment refused to play ball.

On PML-N's electoral hobnobbing with sectarian outfits such as Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), a front for banned terrorist organisation Sipahe-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), Nawaz had to respond to widespread criticism by supporting anti-SSP candidates in Jhang and bringing in some Shia candidates during the election.

"Overall, my sense is that PML-N is not ideologically aligned to these groups-it's not Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal," says Yusuf. "It is electorally convenient to align with groups like ASWJ but Nawaz realises ultimately it may turn against him. Also, if he has to improve ties with India, he has to deal with Punjabi terrorism. He will not authorise major use of force against them. He might instead put into place some mainstreaming agenda or an incremental process that involves socioeconomic mainstreaming, payoffs, etc," says Yusuf.

Clarity shows Commitment

Nawaz has hit the right notes so far

After the first full round of democratic transition, Pakistan will need more to consolidate the democratic system. Congratulatory messages and phone calls from world leaders have poured in, including from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, US President Barack Obama and Saudi King Abdullah. By visiting Imran Khan in hospital, where he congratulated the PTI chief on his party's electoral success in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and offered to play a friendly cricket match once Khan recovers, Nawaz proved his political acumen.

Imtiaz Alam, secretary general of South Asian Free Media Association, thinks Nawaz will have a very effective defence committee of the cabinet to take charge of security policies. "Given his bitter experience of Kargil, the PMelect is setting the rules for his premiership to assert his authority as a powerful chief executive," says Alam. "He has been received well in the region- more so than any other leader-and has committed more than any other leader not to let Pakistani territory be used against any country. Unfortunately, he will not have a confident interlocutor in New Delhi until after the elections in India."

From foreign policy to domestic issues, Nawaz has made all the right noises so far. He understands that civilian supremacy is a must if democracy is to survive in a country that has had more than three decades of direct military rule. He has been critical of the army meddling in politics but has not taken on the army as an institution.

He understands that confronting the army does not bode well for any civilian government, no matter how powerful. Most likely, he will try and work alongside the army. He has indicated that the real chief executive is the prime minister and the army has to be subservient to him. How that evolves is yet to be seen.

(Originally published in India Today)

Wounded Warrior Fights To The Finish

A hurt Imran Khan hopes the outpouring of public sympathy will propel him to victory in Pakistan polls

In an ironic twist of fate, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-a party that ridicules the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) for capitalising on tragedies-is now cashing in on its chief Imran Khan's fall at a jalsa in Lahore on May 7. Hours after his accident, Khan sent a message to his supporters from his hospital bed. "My dear Pakistanis, I have done whatever I could for Pakistan. Now I want you to take charge. If you want to change your destiny, you will have to take responsibility. 11th May...11th May, vote for PTI candidates so that we can build a naya (new) Pakistan together." The enthusiasm and commitment of PTI supporters after Khan's emotional appeal was quite visible the next day. Young boys and girls were out in full force on the streets of Lahore chanting, "Dekho dekho kaun aayaa€, Sher ka shikaari aaya (The tiger's hunter is here)!"

A new survey conducted by Herald magazine puts the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and PTI neck and neck in Punjab, where the real election battle will take place. According to the Herald poll, "PML-N seems to be the party of choice (in Punjab), with 38.66 per cent of the respondents indicating support for it, followed by PTI at 30.46 per cent. The outgoing ruling party the PPP is way behind at 14.33 per cent."

Divisions between families in voting patterns have also emerged. In many instances, children are pressurising parents not to vote for PML-N as most people under the age of 40 have decided to vote for PTI while relatives above 40 will vote for PML-N. With passions running high so close to the elections, sympathy for Khan could prove to be a real game-changer in Punjab.

Sohail Warraich, an analyst with Jang Group of Newspapers, says: "Khan is lucky that when he met with an accident, all parties across the board sympathised with him. The timing of his accident will give him political mileage. Those of his supporters who might not have voted in these elections will now go to the polling stations for sure on election day."

When pictures of Khan's bloodied face were splashed all across television screens, people went into shock. Khan sustained head injuries and fractured three vertebrae and a rib. Prayers followed. President Asif Ali Zardari, PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif, his daughter Maryam Nawaz, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) chief Altaf Hussain and other political leaders asked after his health. Former chief minister of Punjab, Mian Shahbaz Sharif, visited Khan in the hospital.


In a rare gesture of goodwill, even rivals suspended their election campaigns for a day in deference to the fallen gladiator. "It is heartening to see this display of solidarity amongst politicians. It would perhaps be even more useful if the same empathy is extended to martyrs and victims of terrorism of all political parties. We need to rise above party affiliations as has happened in Khan's case," says columnist and lawyer Saroop Ijaz.

When Benazir Bhutto was assassinated, sources close to the PPP complained how Khan did not condole with her widower or her children. Khan had planned to attend Benazir's Qul (third day of mourning) in her hometown Larkana but his father was suddenly taken ill and Khan returned to attend to him. Khan's failure in offering condolences, for whatever reasons, was seen to be in bad taste. He's even said to have blamed Benazir herself for her death.

Khan is not known for his sensitivity. When President Zardari returned to Pakistan after a minor heart ailment back in 2011, Khan reportedly made a snide comment that he was sorry to hear about his ailment but sadder that he recovered. "The PTI and its supporters should learn something from this solidarity for Khan. They must understand that electioneering need not always be cold and calculated. The workers of Awami National Party (ANP), PPP and MQM also deserve respect and empathy. If the PTI leadership fails to extend the same level of decency, it will portray them in poor light," says Ijaz.

But whether his fall will lead to a sympathy vote or not is a question looming large on everyone's mind. Journalist Munizae Jahangir says: "Khan's accident will generate a sympathy wave for him. The same happened with PPP when Benazir Bhutto was assassinated. This fall might just swing voters' sentiments. Imran Khan may just have fallen into the ballot box with a bang."

Others believe that PTI will suffer a loss in not staging the final few rallies but Khan will also get sympathy votes so they will cancel each other out. Khan will address his supporters via video link on the last day of the election campaign (May 9). It remains to be seen whether the fall will have the impact some think it would. It has, however, managed to show that Khan is irrevocably a mainstream player in Pakistan's politics.

Khan's fall also prompted some witty remarks on social media. Faiza S. Khan (@BhopalHouse), an editor/critic, tweeted: "Am v sorry to see a great sportsman injured/bedridden but still doesn't make being nudged off a platform by someone's large bum 'bravery'."


(Originally published in India Today)

It’s a make-or-break Saturday for Islamabad

Pakistan stands at the cliff-edge of Saturday’s general elections with a fear of the unknown. With terrorist attacks almost every day and the possibility of more on poll day, the make-or-break moment for Pakistan’s democratic future is shrouded in morbidity. Conspiracy theories abound as usual. To dispel the notion that the military establishment wants to derail democracy, army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani recently reassured the nation that elections would be held on May 11.
“We mustn’t harbour suspicion or misgivings about it. This is a golden opportunity to usher in an era of true democratic values. It is not merely retribution but awareness and participation of the masses that can end this game of hide-and-seek between democracy and dictatorship,” he said.

Speaking at an event marking Youm-e-Shuhada (Martyrs' Day) on April 30, the General said: "If we succeed in rising above all ethnic, linguistic and sectarian biases to vote solely on the basis of honesty, sincerity, merit and competence, there would be no reason to fear dictatorship."

Coming from the chief of the same institution that has ousted civilian governments in the past and is accused of hatching conspiracies to derail the democratic setup in Pakistan, it is interesting on many levels.

The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), meanwhile, has kept its promise of attacking the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), the Awami National Party (ANP) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) — three liberal and progressive political parties which were coalition partners in the previous government. Khaled Ahmed, consulting editor of Newsweek Pakistan, says: "Taliban are targeting secular parties to better negotiate their ideology with the rest. But the rightwing parties will be wrong to negotiate. Taliban are moving inexorably to the realisation of their ideology which they will implement after a takeover."

Two days before the elections, former prime minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s son Ali Haider Gilani was kidnapped from his hometown, Multan, in daylight. It shows how vulnerable the PPP and other political parties are during these elections.

ANP's Bushra Gohar says the TTP wants to influence the elections by preventing the liberal parties from getting into parliament. "It is blatant pre-poll rigging with the state as a silent spectator. It seems a decision has already been made about what the results of the elections will be. In my opinion it is all closely linked to the 2014 US withdrawal. A serious effort is still underway to get the elections postponed indefinitely but if that scheme doesn't materialize. Then the plan is to keep the liberal anti-Taliban parties out and create greater space for the pro-Taliban parties."

"The ANP has been the worst sufferer of election-related violence by the TTP. The MQM has also suffered as has the PPP. The only province where you see large political rallies are in the Punjab where the centre-right parties - the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's (PTI) political activities are in full swing. The elimination of liberal political figures is the process of creeping Islamisation and permanent militarisation of Pakistan, which began during Zia ul-Haq's military dictatorship," says former PPP parliamentarian Farahnaz Ispahani.

This election was supposed to be a ray of hope for Pakistan's struggling democratic process but it has instead turned into an anti-Taliban versus pro-Taliban fight. The battle in Punjab is between PML-N and PTI, parties with rightwing ideology.

PML-N's connections with the Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), the official name of the banned terrorist organisation Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), are no secret. PML-N has also given a party ticket to former SSP leader Sardar Ebad Dogar, the man who announced head money on late Punjab governor Salmaan Taseer.

In a recent interview, Imran Khan said Benazir Bhutto was not killed by the Taliban. He also believes that the Taliban are a misguided lot who will put down their arms once the US-led NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan and Pakistan is no more their partner in the war on terror. Imran's other ambitious project is to end corruption in 90 days.

While the PML-N is still said to be leading the race, recent surveys show that the PML-N and PTI are going to have a close fight in Punjab, where PPP may not do too well. With Imran's recent accident at a rally, many think the sympathy wave could lead to surprising results. With such a divided electorate, a hung parliament seems likely. It goes in the military establishment's favour that no political party is likely to get a clear majority. In that case, Pakistan's political process could be in trouble all over again by the yearend.

(Originally published in Hindustan Times)

Time for Pak to embrace democracy

Tomorrow is a big day for Pakistan. We are finally going to have a transition albeit not a smooth one to democracy by holding elections after a civilian government completed its tenure. Had the circumstances been different, we would have celebrated this moment. Instead, we are quivering in fear.

These elections have been dubbed as the bloodiest in the history of Pakistan. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is targeting the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Awami National Party (ANP) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) left, right and centre. These three parties have not been able to campaign due to security threats. Punjab is the only province where we have seen proper electioneering.

No wonder then that people are asking whether it is an election or selection process. Rightist parties like the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have not even condemned the Taliban for attacks against the three liberal parties.

They are making a huge mistake by thinking that they would be left unscathed supporting the terrorists. Attacks against political parties are in essence attacks on the democratic process itself. The TTP is against democracy, period. Mian Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan are living in a delusional world if they think the TTP can be reformed.

Yesterday, former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s son was abducted from Multan. People who criticise Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari for not going out and campaigning on the streets should realise that the threat to his life is real. “One day I will also lead your (PPP’s) election campaign like Shaheed Bhutto and Shaheed BB.

We have to continue this democratic journey...but we are being stopped, we are being attacked, because we are not Zia’s remnants. We only have the masses,” said Bilawal in his video message. This is not far from the truth. There are threats of terrorist attacks on Election Day. We can only pray for the best but we know how terrorists have the capacity to strike at will. More violence is expected.

By Sunday, we should know which party has won the most seats and is in a position to form a government. So far it seems that no political party will get a clear majority so the next government will also be a coalition. There are fears that it would be difficult to form a coalition government in light of the political differences between the three main contenders, the PPP, the PML-N and PTI.

In such a scenario, the next government might not even last a year. It would give the establishment another chance to strike again. Direct military coup is not an option but a technocratic government cannot be ruled out. Keep in mind that 2014 is an important year for Pakistan’s national security apparatus because of US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

It is important for all political parties to stick together and fight the undemocratic forces regardless of their ideology. The people of Pakistan should also unite in this fight against the terrorists. The terrorists want to stop us from voting but we have to exercise our right to vote in order to demonstrate our confidence in the democratic process. Pakistan’s survival depends on the survival of democracy.

(Originally published in Mid-Day)

Who will win Pakistan?

Will lion of Punjab Nawaz Sharif become prime minister for the third time or will captain Imran Khan ride a tsunami of youth power?

Sixty-six years after its creation, a democratic transition is taking place for the first time in Pakistan's history. An elected government has completed its tenure, put in place an independent Election Commission, and handed power to a neutral caretaker set-up to allow free and fair elections. But the fear of violence is palpable. Under normal circumstances, passions run high during election season-political leaders campaign in full force, election meetings and rallies are held at every nook and corner, and the atmosphere is that of a mela. In Pakistan, it seems, however, as if the election campaign is being staged solely for television screens, not the streets.

There is not much election activity outside Punjab, where campaigning is so hectic that candidates sometimes forget their own loyalties. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan, who has been holding large rallies apparently because the Taliban have granted him immunity, inadvertently asked his voters to vote for PML-N. "Ab jaayein aur sher (PML-N's election symbol) pe mohar lagaayein (Go out and put a stamp on the lion)," said Khan at an election rally. He realised his mistake rightaway. Laughing heartily, Khan corrected himself: "Ballay pe, sher ka toh mai shikaari hoon (Stamp on the bat; I am going to hunt the lion)."

His main political rival, Mian Nawaz Sharif, who hopes to become prime minister for the third time, couldn't help taking a dig at Khan's faux pas. "Even our rivals want you to vote for sher," he joked. People are not so cheerful about PML-N's prospects though. Young voters-of whom there are 13 million first-timers-are likely to vote for the charismatic Khan. At an election rally in Sheikhupura, Sharif asked the audience to raise their hands to show how many of them were 'naujawaan' (youngsters) and 'youth'. When the crowd enthusiastically cheered, he replied in Punjabi: "Lo dasso, saari youth te Sheikhupura jama hoyi aye Nawaz Sharif de jalsay te. O jaide baaki youth di gallan karde ne, o kithay ne? O kaidi youth di gall karde ne? (All the youth have gathered here in Sheikhupura at Nawaz Sharif's rally. Where are those who talk about the rest of the youth? Which youth are they talking about?)"

The first-time voters are 30 per cent of the electorate. They have a third choice, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). In a mainstream bi-party system, predictions are usually easy to make before the elections even if a coalition is in the offing, but a tri-party system-in which each party would rather sit in opposition than form a coalition with any of the others-makes the task of political pundits all the more difficult. There is a further complication: In the backdrop of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an alliance of militant groups, targeting the left-of-centre parties that were coalition partners in the last government-PPP, Awami National Party (ANP) and Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM)-it seems as if elections are only going to be held in Punjab, which is relatively unscathed by the terrorists, and in which the leading contenders are the PML-N and PTI-two parties that are soft on terrorism. Khan is accused of being pro-Taliban while the Sharif brothers have made electoral alliances with terrorist sectarian outfits.

The threat of terror is everywhere. As Farahnaz Ispahani, a former PPP member of Parliament who was unseated last year by the Supreme Court for being a dual Pakistani-American national, puts it: "Unless the prevailing terrorist activities targeting the three centre-left parties are stopped, the elections will not be free or fair. But the historic handing over of power from one democratic government to another without a hitch is essential for Pakistan's growth as a democratic state."

At two joint press conferences held in Karachi in May-end, PPP, ANP and MQM leaders vowed to contest the elections despite the toll that Taliban bombs have taken on their cadres in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh province. Conspiracy theorists say that liberal parties are deliberately being kept out of political power with the Afghan endgame in sight.

"This (TTP threats) gives a very clear advantage to the Islamist political parties and a signal to parties of the political Right that they must either support the Taliban or maintain diplomatic ambiguity towards them," explains Hasan Askari Rizvi, a defence and political analyst. "Those who openly criticise the Taliban and militancy are directly under threat."

Imran is the X factor

PPP's campaign is being hampered due to security threats. Its chairman, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, has been compelled to lead the election campaign through a video-taped message. "I wanted to contest the elections by living amongst you," he said, "I wanted to campaign in the streets of my country alongside every worker of mine. The world knows we have sacrificed our lives for democracy."

According to most analysts, PPP will not be able to bag more than 60 seats out of the 272 national seats for which direct elections are held, mostly from Sindh-60 seats are reserved for women and 10 seats for non-Muslims for a total of 342 in Pakistan's National Assembly. PML-N is expected to win at least 90, mostly from Punjab. This is a reversal of fortunes for both compared to their tally in the 2008 elections. The X factor is Imran Khan and the independents. Both Zardari and Sharif will have to buy seats from the independents and regional parties in the post-election scenario if Khan doesn't play ball. PTI has so far ruled out forming a coalition government with either the PPP or PML-N. That is a recipe for a weak and unstable coalition government, which won't be able to take the hard economic and political decisions that need to be taken if Pakistan is to be put back on the rails.

"Many people are of the view that both PPP and PML-N have been tried and tested so Imran Khan deserves a chance at ruling the country," claims Asma Shirazi, a tv political anchor. "As far as I can see, there will be neck-and-neck competition between PML-N and PTI in Punjab. But PPP is not out of the game yet. It can still win 55-60 seats. Nawaz Sharif has not ruled out forming a coalition with either the PPP or PTI and has no qualms in taking oath from President Asif Ali Zardari," she says. In a recent speech, Sharif mentioned the presidency; some sources say there are talks within PML-N whether Sharif should become the president or prime minister if his party comes to power.

By and large, polls and analyses have favoured PML-N's electoral chances. Sharif is the one remaining popular leader from the 1980s; the other was the late Benazir Bhutto. Going beyond his traditional base in Punjab, and a broader coalition of conservative electorates, Sharif built his political appeal after defying the military and civil establishment. He broke away with the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI), a right-wing alliance cobbled together by ISI, and has continued to distance himself from General Zia-ul-Haq's legacy. His main themes of popular politics are economic progress and civilian assertion vis-à-vis the military establishment.

Analysts remain divided in their predictions. Some think PML-N will win more than 100 seats from Punjab and get well within striking distance of a stable coalition. Others think this is not possible, given Khan's rising popularity and his emergence as a 'hero'. Khan became Pakistan's hero by putting it on the cricketing world map; he has charisma and is a great philanthropist. But he has come under criticism for never directly condemning the anti-American Taliban or the anti-India jihadis. At the same time, whenever he talks to non-Pakistani audiences in India or the West, he tells them he is not a reactionary or an anti-India politician. At the end of the day, however, it isn't issues that will decide who votes for whom. Pakistan's average voter turnout is 45 per cent. Voter turnout in three provinces — Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Sindh — may remain low due to the bloodshed that is being witnessed there. It is only Punjab, and more specifically urban Punjab, where voter turnout could increase manifold in these elections due to Khan's popularity. PTI's chances of doing well in the elections largely depend on young voter turnout.

Cyril Almeida, assistant editor of the Pakistani daily, Dawn, says, "My sense is that the momentum is with Sharif right now, though Imran and PTI are making a late charge. Imran is the first politician poised to take advantage of the lowering of the voting age to 18 in 2002. No other politician has so actively targeted the youth vote. However, whether they will come out to vote or not remains to be seen."

M. Ziauddin, executive editor of The Express Tribune, calls him a breath of fresh air but says he has a "long way to go because we are still entrenched in an old political system where biradaris (clans) still matter. We need a break from this system but it's not going to happen in this election." Ziauddin believes Khan may win 50 seats, mostly in Punjab. "If PTI dents PML-N in Punjab, Sharif has no other place to make up for the loss. This means there will be a hung Parliament."

But disagreements abound. “I don’t think Imran Khan can reach that figure,” says Iftikhar Ahmad, a journalist who has been covering elections in Pakistan since 1990 for Jang Group as head of its election cell.

Sharif, who already thinks and acts as though he has won the elections, has a raw vision of modern Pakistan. With an insatiable appetite for modern gadgets, electronics, cameras, music, he is fond of glitz, glamour and modernity. He often confuses economic progress with building motorways, bullet trains, underground metro stations, wide roads, palm tree-lined avenues, partly as a throwback to the great emperor Sher Shah Suri and other Mughal emperors and partly to the sands of the Middle East-where he spent much of his time in exile-which were raised from nothing and then turned into modern New Yorks. He wants to build cities on the beaches of Gwadar with seven-star hotels and Burj Dubai-type skyscrapers. But he doesn't seem to know where the money for such grandiose projects is going to come from. In 2012, Pakistan could attract foreign investment which was equal to 12 per cent of its GDP (from nearly 22 per cent in 2007) and Sharif has no plans to raise resources from within by taxing the rich.

While some of his projects such as building motorways and the new metro bus system in Lahore were well-intentioned, they have incurred huge expenditure and need recurring subsidies to keep them going. He does not want to borrow money from the West, yet he does not have a solution for raising such money. His passion for gadgetry and gimmickry resulted in the Yellow-Cab scheme, the Sasti Roti scheme, and free laptops for students which were merely handouts without any institutional policy in place.

Alliance may be possibility

Modernity can only be enjoyed by the rich and is not for the poor but Sharif does not have a vision to alleviate poverty. Sharif knows he cannot liberalise the economy without enforcing taxes but he has not found a solution to this problem since his own constituency is known to be anti-taxes.

In Pakistan, passion often overtakes rationality. Sharif knows how to flog the virtue of nationalism, identity and self-respect. He does not wish to alienate his conservative constituency with overtly liberal values, which is why his political nationalism is imbued with religious fervour and ideological ambiguity. By carrying out nuclear tests in 1998 and officially declaring Pakistan a nuclear power, Sharif established his credentials as a nationalist. Since then he has used this credibility to establish his ground when it comes to maintaining peaceful relations with India. Sharif's peace overtures have not been questioned in the same rigorous fashion like others whose nationalism and patriotism were under question.

As far as civil-military relations are concerned, Sharif signed the Charter of Democracy (COD) with Benazir Bhutto to strengthen the democratic framework on the one hand and take the route of amity with India on the other. He firmly believes that without economic partnership with India, the region cannot move forward and Pakistan will be a beneficiary and not a loser, as some people assert, if it happens. Some analysts believe that while Sharif is not going to take on the military, he will not give in to their whims either. He will not get into a fight with them but won't surrender unconditionally either so that the supremacy of civilians is maintained. In order to have a working relationship with the military, he would rather go for truth and reconciliation between the army and civilians. He understands the military is popular in Pakistan while politicians are unpopular, so his government needs to put up a good performance to gain credibility with the masses. He wants an end to the military's monopoly over national security. This notion of India as an enemy has to end through a friendly foreign policy that compels the military to stop this doctrine. He also wants good relations with the US but wants to tread carefully at the same time-being aware that the country cannot get out of the current straitjacket.

The importance of these elections is not lost on anyone. The issue of civil-military imbalance cannot be resolved unless and until democracy continues to function uninterruptedly in Pakistan. Despite recent reassurances by General Kayani that elections will be held on time, the military is still seen to be distrustful of the political class. Post-election chaos can help the military establishment and other undemocratic forces. Some analysts believe the PPP and PML-N may end up forming a coalition to save democracy. That would be an irony for two foes who have fought tooth and nail all their political lives but many analysts believe an alliance between the two largest mainstream parties will make for a strong civilian government. May 11 will decide the fate and future course for Pakistan.

(Originally published in India Today)

Choose wisely

General elections in Pakistan are just around the corner. Everyone is waiting to see which party will be able to form the next government. Chances of a hung parliament are quite high as no political party is in a position to win a simple majority. While the real battle is between the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), all eyes are on Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to see how much of an impact PTI’s recent rise in popularity will have on election results. Most political pundits are of the view that Mian Nawaz Sharif can become the next prime minister of Pakistan but it largely depends on voter turnout as well as how voters in Punjab, especially in urban Punjab, choose to vote.

PTI is expected to cut into PML-N’s traditional vote, i.e. centre-right and rightwing vote but another factor that goes in Khan’s favour is the youth vote. There is a large section of population under 35 years of age in Pakistan. At least 20 percent are between the 18-25 years old. A product of Pakistan’s inadequate education system with few job prospects, these youngsters have grown up espousing religious nationalism and anti-Americanism. Imran has been quick to respond to his youthful constituency.

Both PTI and PML-N have adopted a vague approach on terrorism and the Taliban. It is because of this ambiguity that these two parties are not being targeted by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) whereas the PPP, Awami National Party (ANP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) have directly been threatened by the TTP because of their liberal and secular ideology as well as for taking an anti-Taliban position. These three parties cannot campaign freely due to security concerns, which in itself is pre-poll rigging.

Attacks on ANP rallies have become a usual occurrence, more so during the election season. MQM has decided to temporarily shut down its election offices after several attacks on party workers. PPP’s chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari is unable to directly lead his party’s election campaign in the wake of security threats. What is appalling is the silence of PML-N and PTI in this regard. Irrespective of their political rivalries and different ideologies, the least these parties could have done was to show solidarity with their political counterparts by condemning TTP threat and attacks against the PPP, ANP and MQM.

All those who are either justifying these threats for one reason or another and/or are silent spectators should be ashamed of themselves. If we do not stand by them in these difficult times, we are as guilty as those who are out to get them. If PML-N and PTI think that by remaining silent, they will somehow save themselves from the wrath of the Taliban, they are in for a surprise. TTP and their ilk are against the very idea of democracy. They consider the electoral process un-Islamic. Negotiating with the Taliban is not a solution. Make no mistake, they are our enemies. Those who support them directly or indirectly and those who choose to ignore their terrorist activities are guilty of strengthening the undemocratic forces. We have two choices now: disorder or development. Pakistanis must choose a side and choose it wisely, for our future depends on it.

(Originally published in Mid-Day)

A dangerous precedent

In the aftermath of the disastrous implementation of Articles 62 and 63 of the Constitution of Pakistan by the Election Commission’s returning officers (ROs), many are asking why the political parties did not remove General Zia-ul-Haq’s amendments from the Constitution when they had a chance during the previous democratic government’s tenure. It is indeed an omission for which they are now paying heavily but, predictably, the opposition to these amendments came from the religious and rightwing parties. In a country like ours, getting an ‘anti-Islam’ label can be quite damaging and dangerous so the previous parliament was cautious enough to let these articles remain in the Constitution.

Journalist Iftikhar Ahmad (@jawabdeyh) tweeted, “Height of McCarthyism”, after news broke out that noted columnist and PML-N leader Ayaz Amir’s nomination papers were rejected by the Election Commission for writing columns against the ‘ideology of Pakistan’ and Islam. Iftikhar Ahmad is right. The ROs played the role of Joe McCarthy down to a tee. They tried to do to the political class what McCarthy did to his political opponents and those with a conscience. While the Election Tribunals have overturned the RO’s decision in many cases – including Ayaz Amir’s, who is now allowed to contest the election – it was disturbing to see some journalists endorsing Articles 62 and 63 in their columns and on TV talk shows. If we are not allowed to engage in discourse lest someone accuses us of being anti-state or anti-religion, it means an end of rationality in Pakistan. One hopes that the next parliament will form a consensus on changing these moralistic articles but the question is, at whose behest were these articles, inserted by an evil military dictator, implemented during this exercise? Apparently, Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry had directed the ROs to implement Articles 62 and 63. Whether unintentionally or by design, a dangerous precedent has been set; by the end of this exercise of so-called ‘scrutiny’, the entire political class was demonised in Pakistan. Many believe it is a well-crafted strategy by the undemocratic forces to discredit the next parliament.

As it is, our politicians have been at the receiving end of many a malicious campaign. According to ‘The Next Generation Goes to the Ballot Box’, a report by the British Council Pakistan, only 29% of our youth believe in democracy as a system while 94% think the country is heading in the wrong direction. Given a huge youth bulge in Pakistan, these results should ring alarm bells for the country as a whole. In essence, it means that the anti-democratic forces, including the military establishment and some sections of the media, have been quite successful at getting their desired results through their propaganda campaign against the political class.

What is it that makes the military establishment and its cohorts so uncomfortable with the idea of democracy? A strong, democratic Pakistan would mean an end to the military’s hegemony and its hold on national discourse. It is due to the military’s vested interest that extremist forces were strengthened in the first place. Now these forces are out to destroy this country. Our political leaders have already paid for their mistakes of omission and commission through long terms of imprisonments, exile, persistent character-assassination, perennial stigmatisation and even sacrifices of life. The people of Pakistan have suffered with both an unenviable quality of life and being consigned to the embarrassing status of a pariah community on the world stage. Democracy may not be a perfect system but it is one that the Pakistanis must invest in wholeheartedly so as to make this country a better place.

(Originally published in Mid-Day)

Cracks In The House Of Bhutto

Differences between President Zardari and his son Bilawal underline tensions within Pakistan's largest political party ahead of a historic election

On April 4, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) was to kick-start its election campaign at a rally in the village of Garhi Khuda Baksh to mark the death anniversary of founder-leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Security threats had turned it into a small meeting, to be held in the district town of Naudero, in the presence of Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, 24. Less than a week after news filtered out of his departure from Pakistan in the aftermath of an alleged tiff with his father, President Asif Ali Zardari, 57, the PPP scion flew back into Pakistan. According to reports, denied by PPP, Bilawal had an argument with his father over the party's performance in power, and his aunt Faryal Talpur's refusal to accommodate Bilawal's recommendations for tickets in Sindh.

Faryal's claim to fame is that she is Zardari's sister and runs the day-to-day affairs of PPP on behalf of the Pakistan president. According to one analyst, she is nothing more than Zardari's glorified messenger, and has nothing to do with any policy decision. The same analyst believes that apart from Sindh, where Zardari personally takes care of everything himself, he has given a free hand to Anwar Saifullah in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Yousaf Raza Gilani in south Punjab and Mian Manzoor Wattoo in central Punjab. Others insist that there is a deep resentment within the party over Faryal's interference in administrative affairs.

Many do believe that there were some differences between the father and son, while others say it is entirely untrue. "Why do people forget that Zardari is a Sindhi wadera (feudal) and Bilawal is his only son? Sindhi waderas pamper their sons and spoil them; they don't fight with them," says an analyst who keeps a close watch on political affairs in Pakistan. Others are of the opinion that in the run-up to an election, every major political party faces internal squabbles over the award of party tickets and other campaign-related decisions. The same process is taking place in PPP, which probably involves discussion, debate and disagreement between the most important stakeholders within the party. But these disagreements should not be confused with a schism between Zardari and Bilawal.

It is no secret that all three Zardari children, including daughters Bakhtawar, 23, and Asifa, 20, are quite close to their father. But this is a family that is, above all, concerned with their physical survival. On the one hand, PPP does not have a populist leader to lead its election campaign. On the other, there is serious disagreement on whether Bilawal should be politically deployed, and therefore exhausted, at so early a stage in his political career. Bilawal is a young, ideologically-driven politician who sees himself as the heir to the Bhutto legacy. He remains politically untested, but if PPP is to have a political future, it rests with him. If something were to happen to Bilawal, not only would Zardari lose his son, but PPP would lose its political future. Security concerns around the young Bilawal are widely acknowledged as real. With defeat a distinct possibility, PPP would rather prefer to save Bilawal for the next elections due in 2018.

Save Bilawal For The Future

The question on everybody's mind is whether Bilawal will lead the campaign for the forthcoming May 11 general elections. Like others in the fray, PPP needs 172 seats in the 342-member assembly to form the government. According to sources close to PPP, after some brainstorming sessions a decision was taken in January this year to not expose Bilawal and jeopardise his career. It is a well thought-out and rational strategy. If PPP is unable to form a government after the elections, Bilawal can gradually take charge of the party in the post-election scenario, while cutting his teeth in politics playing the role of an Opposition leader.

Says PPP's Chaudhry Fawad Hussain, former adviser to the prime minister: "PPP is going through a genera-tional change, so naturally there would be some difference in the way father and son approach different issues. Bilawal is young but he has had more exposure to politics than others of his age. He has lived his life under the close guidance of his mother, late Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto. He has been part of many important diplomatic meetings as well, so his exposure is different. I think he is more sensitive to media criticism and his approach to politics is somewhat more idealistic than the present PPP leadership."

An Open-ended Election

These are possibly going to be the fairest elections since 1970, where all parties have a level playing field because of a neutral caretaker government in power now, that took over in March. PPP has candidates all over the country to contest elections, which in itself is a big achievement. Zardari cannot campaign himself because he is the president and courts have prohibited him from engaging in political activity. Some optimists believe that being the largest mainstream political party, PPP has an edge over its rivals, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and former cricketer Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), in terms of its nationwide structure and outreach.

Others believe it will not do that well. Senior journalist Iftikhar Ahmad says "PPP is fighting a war that it has already lost because of its non-serious attitude towards the issues within the party and outside the party. They will not be able to perform as well as their leadership's claims, but Zardari will try to be in a bargaining position with whichever party achieves majority, so that he can survive".

Sindh is PPP's traditional base and will remain so by and large, despite the quality of governance. Apart from a few incumbency-related losses, PPP remains the largest party in the province, and is likely to retain its status there. The real battle will be in Punjab. Since 1977, PPP has been in long-term decline in central and northern Punjab despite having Yousaf Raza Gilani, who is from south Punjab, as prime minister for over four years of PPP's five-year term.

The big question is: Will PPP retain its support in south Punjab? Many feel PPP's election will be won or lost in south Punjab. Some say that despite discrimination against south Punjab by the PML(N) government in the province, PML(N) will better PPP there as the Sharifs have been quite successful at selling the myth of good governance. Observers say even if PPP loses this year's polls, so long as it wins over 70 seats, it will effectively hold on to its core political base. But with anything less than 70, PPP will face an uphill battle for political survival. Journalist and political analyst Nusrat Javeed says, "I don't think they (PPP) should expect to form the next government. Even they are clear about it."

Sohail Warraich, a keen observer of Punjabi politics, believes that "it will be a two-way fight, not the three-way battle that some are predicting". "These 'two' will differ from region to region; in some parts it will be PTI-PML(N), in others PPP-PML(N), but rarely will it be between PPP-PTI. The reason is simple: People limit their choices on election day and only vote for those they think stand a chance of winning, because everyone is afraid of venturing into unknown territory."

Non-linear Equations

Warraich believes citizens of urban Punjab have a double-edged relationship with PML(N). There is the continued love of the urban middle class for the business-friendly party founded by Nawaz Sharif. Then there is the fear factor. Most Pakistani families do not allow for any independence in the political orientation of their members. These voters are afraid that if they leave the PML(N) fold, they will be cut off from their biradiri (clan), which, in this case, is related to economic interest. Over the years, PML(N)) has been deserted by social, political and religious groups who once backed them, but so far, there haven't been any desertions from their trading class vote bank.

This is why many are of the opinion that these will be Nawaz Sharif's elections to lose. For that, though, he will have to expand his political base beyond northern and central Punjab to make enough gains to lead a coalition.

In all this, the wild card is Imran Khan, who is Sharif's natural political competitor, not the PPP's. Central and northern Punjab and the Hazara division of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are traditionally PML(N) power bases. But now they have a new competitor in Khan's pti, which might emerge as the third largest party. Eventually though, it may all depend on voter turnout. As the saying in these parts goes: "Elections mein ek hawa banti hai, aapko nahi pata ki woh kya rukh legi" (There is always a wind during the elections, you just don't know which direction it will take).

Says journalist Khaled Ahmed, "Imran Khan's strategy is based on an assumption of victory inspired by divine revelation. Nawaz Sharif's strategy is based on assumption of victory inspired by predictions of pollsters. Zardari's strategy, meanwhile, is the strongest and more realistic. It is based on the assumption of defeat." Zardari will rely on Sharif and Imran Khan's well known antipathy towards each other to retain some kind of hold in Parliament. In all likelihood, Imran Khan will not go into coalition with PML-N.

PPP will be more amenable to a tie-up than the two other parties. If it does manage to coax a coalition at the centre, Zardari can once again hope to manoeuvre himself into the presidential seat. It might be worth remembering that the president's office offers Zardari immunity from prosecution in a series of corruption-related cases he is mired in. It is the barely-hidden ace up the wily president's sleeve.

(Originally published in India Today)